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The Fight For The Republic In China by B.L. Putnam Weale

Part 3 out of 9

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she may deem necessary.

The Chinese Government with a view to preserving the peace of the
Far East hereby accepts, with the exception of those five articles
of Group V postponed for later negotiation, all the articles of
Group I, II, III, and IV and the exchange of notes in connection
with Fukien Province in Group V as contained in the revised
proposals presented on the 26th of April, and in accordance with
the Explanatory Note of seven articles accompanying the Ultimatum
of the Japanese Government with the hope that thereby all the
outstanding questions are settled, so that the cordial
relationship between the two countries may be further
consolidated. The Japanese Minister is hereby requested to appoint
a day to call at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to make the
literary improvement of the text and sign the Agreement as soon as

Thus ended one of the most extraordinary diplomatic negotiations
ever undertaken in Peking.



The key to this remarkable business was supplied by a cover sent
anonymously to the writer during the course of these negotiations
with no indication as to its origin. The documents which this
envelope contained are so interesting that they merit attention at
the hands of all students of history, explaining as they do the
psychology of the Demands as well as throwing much light on the
manner in which the world-war has been viewed in Japan.

The first document is purely introductory, but is none the less
interesting. It is a fragment, or rather a precis of the momentous
conversation which took place between Yuan Shih-kai and the
Japanese Minister when the latter personally served the Demands on
the Chief Executive and took the opportunity to use language
unprecedented even in the diplomatic history of Peking.

The precis begins in a curious way. After saying that "the
Japanese Minister tried to influence President Yuan Shih-kai with
the following words," several long lines of asterisks suggest that
after reflection the unknown chronicler had decided, for political
reasons of the highest importance, to allow others to guess how
the "conversation" opened. From the context it seems absolutely
clear that the excised words have to deal with the possibility of
the re-establishment of the Empire in China--a very important
conclusion in view of what followed later in the year. Indeed
there is no reason to doubt that the Japanese Envoy actually told
Yuan Shih-kai that as he was already virtually Emperor it lay
within his power to settle the whole business and to secure his
position at one blow. In any case the precis begins with these
illuminating sentences:

... Furthermore, the Chinese revolutionists are in close touch and
have intimate relations with numerous irresponsible Japanese, some
of whom have great influence and whose policy is for strong
measures. Our Government has not been influenced by this policy,
but if your Government does not quickly agree to these
stipulations, it will be impossible to prevent some of our
irresponsible people from inciting the Chinese revolutionists to
create trouble in China.

The majority of the Japanese people are also opposed to President
Yuan and Yuan's Government. They all declare that the President
entertains anti-Japanese feeling and adopts the policy of
"befriending the Far" (Europe and America) and "antagonizing the
Near" (Japan). Japanese public opinion is therefore exceedingly

Our Government has all along from first to last exerted its best
efforts to help the Chinese Government, and if the Chinese
Government will speedily agree to these stipulations it will have
thus manifested its friendship for Japan.

The Japanese people will then be able to say that the President
never entertained anti-Japanese feelings, or adopted the policy of
"befriending the Far and antagonizing the Near." Will not this
then be indeed a bona fide proof of our friendly relations?

The Japanese Government also will then be inclined to render
assistance to President Yuan's Government whenever it is necessary
... .

We are admittedly living in a remarkable age which is making waste
paper of our dearest principles. But in all the welter which the
world war has made it would be difficult to find anything more
extraordinary than these few paragraphs. Japan, through her
official representative, boldly tears down the veil hiding her
ambitions, and using the undoubted menace which Chinese
revolutionary activities then held for the Peking Government,
declares in so many words that unless President Yuan Shih-kai bows
his head to the dictation of Tokio, the duel which began in Seoul
twenty-five years ago would be openly resumed.

Immediately following the "conversation" is the principal document
in the dossier. This is nothing less than an exhaustive
Memorandum, divided into two sections, containing the policy
advocated by the Japanese secret society, called the Black Dragon
Society, which is said to have assumed that name on account of the
members (military officers) having studied the situation in the
Heilungchiang (or "Black Dragon") province of Manchuria. The
memorandum is the most remarkable document dealing with the Far
East which has come to light since the famous Cassini Convention
was published in 1896. Written presumably late in the autumn of
1914 and immediately presented to the Japanese Government, it may
undoubtedly be called the fulminate which exploded the Japanese
mine of the 18th January, 1915. It shows such sound knowledge of
world-conditions, and is so scientific in its detachment that
little doubt can exist that distinguished Japanese took part in
its drafting. It can therefore be looked upon as a genuine
expression of the highly educated Japanese mind, and as such
cannot fail to arouse serious misgivings. The first part is a
general review of the European War and the Chinese Question: the
second is concerned with the Defensive Alliance between China and
Japan which is looked upon as the one goal of all Japanese


The present gigantic struggle in Europe has no parallel in
history. Not only will the equilibrium of Europe be affected and
its effect felt all over the globe, but its results will create a
New Era in the political and social world. Therefore, whether or
not the Imperial Japanese Government can settle the Far Eastern
Question and bring to realization our great Imperial policy
depends on our being able to skilfully avail ourselves of the
world's general trend of affairs so as to extend our influence and
to decide upon a course of action towards China which shall be
practical in execution. If our authorities and people view the
present European War with indifference and without deep concern,
merely devoting their attention to the attack on Kiaochow,
neglecting the larger issues of the war, they will have brought to
nought our great Imperial policy, and committed a blunder greater
than which it can not be conceived. We are constrained to submit
this statement of policy for the consideration of our authorities,
not because we are fond of argument but because we are deeply
anxious for our national welfare.

No one at present can foretell the outcome of the European War. If
the Allies meet with reverses and victory shall crown the arms of
the Germans and Austrians, German militarism will undoubtedly
dominate the European Continent and extend southward and eastward
to other parts of the world. Should such a state of affairs happen
to take place the consequences resulting therefrom will be indeed
great and extensive. On this account we must devote our most
serious attention to the subject. If, on the other hand, the
Germans and Austrians should be crushed by the Allies, Germany
will be deprived of her present status as a Federated State under
a Kaiser. The Federation will be disintegrated into separate
states, and Prussia will have to be content with the status of a
second-rate Power. Austria and Hungary, on account of this defeat,
will consequently be divided. What their final fate shall be, no
one would now venture to predict. In the meantime Russia will
annex Galicia and the Austrian Poland: France will repossess
Alsace and Lorraine: Great Britain will occupy the German Colonies
in Africa and the South Pacific; Servia and Montenegro will take
Bosnia, Herzegovina and a certain portion of Austrian Territory;
thus making such great changes in the map of Europe that even the
Napoleonic War in 1815 could not find a parallel.

When these events take place, not only will Europe experience
great changes, but we should not ignore the fact that they will
occur also in China and in the South Pacific. After Russia has
replaced Germany in the territories lost by Germany and Austria,
she will hold a controlling influence in Europe, and, for a long
time to come, will have nothing to fear from her western frontier.
Immediately after the war she will make an effort to carry out her
policy of expansion in the East and will not relax that effort
until she has acquired a controlling influence in China. At the
same time Great Britain will strengthen her position in the
Yangtsze Valley and prohibit any other country from getting a
footing there. France will do likewise in Yunnan province using it
as her base of operations for further encroachments upon China and
never hesitate to extend her advantages. We must therefore
seriously study the situation remembering always that the combined
action of Great Britain, Russia, and France will not only affect
Europe but that we can even foresee that it will also affect

Whether this combined action on the part of England, France and
Russia is to terminate at the end of the war or to continue to
operate, we can not now predict. But after peace in Europe is
restored, these Powers will certainly turn their attention to the
expansion of their several spheres of interest in China, and, in
the adjustment, their interests will most likely conflict with one
another. If their interests do not conflict, they will work
jointly to solve the Chinese Question. On this point we have not
the least doubt. If England, France and Russia are actually to
combine for the coercion of China, what course is to be adopted by
the Imperial Japanese Government to meet the situation? What
proper means shall we employ to maintain our influence and extend
our interests within this ring of rivalry and competition? It is
necessary that we bear in mind the final results of the European
War and forestall the trend of events succeeding it so as to be
able to decide upon a policy towards China and determine the
action to be ultimately taken. If we remain passive, the Imperial
Japanese Government's policy towards China will lose that
subjective influence and our diplomacy will be checked forever by
the combined force of the other Powers. The peace of the Far East
will be thus endangered and even the existence of the Japanese
Empire as a nation will no doubt be imperilled. It is therefore
our first important duty at this moment to enquire of our
Government what course is to be adopted to face that general
situation after the war? What preparations are being made to meet
the combined pressure of the Allies upon China? What policy has
been followed to solve the Chinese Question? When the European War
is terminated and peace restored we are not concerned so much with
the question whether it be the Dual Monarchies or the Triple
Entente which emerge victorious but whether, in anticipation of
the future expansion of European influence in the Continents of
Europe and Asia, the Imperial Japanese Government should or should
not hesitate to employ force to check the movement before this
occurrence. Now is the most opportune moment for Japan to quickly
solve the Chinese Question. Such an opportunity will not occur for
hundreds of years to come. Not only is it Japan's divine duty to
act now, but present conditions in China favour the execution of
such a plan. We should by all means decide and act at once. If our
authorities do not avail themselves of this rare opportunity,
great difficulty will surely be encountered in future in the
settlement of this Chinese Question. Japan will be isolated from
the European Powers after the war, and will be regarded by them
with envy and jealousy just as Germany is now regarded. Is it not
then a vital necessity for Japan to solve at this very moment the
Chinese Question?

No one--not even those who care nothing for politics--can deny
that there is in this document an astounding disclosure of the
mental attitude of the Japanese not only towards their enemies but
towards their friends as well. They trust nobody, befriend nobody,
envy nobody; they content themselves with believing that the whole
world may in the not distant future turn against them. The burden
of their argument swings just as much against their British ally
as against Germany and Austria; and the one and only matter which
preoccupies Japanese who make it their business to think about
such things is to secure that Japan shall forestall Europe in
seizing control of China. It is admitted in so many words that it
is too early to know who is to triumph in the gigantic European
struggle; it is also admitted that Germany will forever be the
enemy. At the same time it is expected, should the issue of the
struggle be clearcut and decisive in favour of the Allies, that a
new three-Power combination formed by England, France and Russia
may be made to operate against Japan. Although the alliance with
England, twice renewed since 1902, should occupy as important a
place in the Far East as the Entente between England and France
occupies in Europe, not one Japanese in a hundred knows or cares
anything about such an arrangement; and even if he has knowledge
of it, he coolly assigns to his country's major international
commitment a minimum and constantly diminishing importance. In his
view the British Alliance is nothing but a piece of paper which
may be consumed in the great bonfire now shedding such a lurid
light over the world. What is germane to the matter is his own
plan, his own method of taking up arms in a sea of troubles. The
second part of the Black Dragon Society's Memorandum, pursuing the
argument logically and inexorably and disclosing traces of real
political genius, makes this unalterably clear.

Having established clearly the attitude of Japan towards the
world--and more particularly towards the rival political
combinations now locked together in a terrible death-struggle,
this second part of the Memorandum is concerned solely with China
and can be broken into two convenient sections. The first section
is constructive--the plan for the reconstruction of China is
outlined in terms suited to the Japanese genius. This part begins
with an illuminating piece of rhetoric.


It is a very important matter of policy whether the Japanese
Government, in obedience to its divine mission, shall solve the
Chinese Question in a heroic manner by making China voluntarily
rely upon Japan. To force China to such a position there is
nothing else for the Imperial Japanese Government to do but to
take advantage of the present opportunity to seize the reigns of
political and financial power and to enter by all means into a
defensive alliance with her under secret terms as enumerated

The Secret Terms of the Defensive Alliance

The Imperial Japanese Government, with due respect for the
Sovereignty and Integrity of China and with the object and hope of
maintaining the peace of the Far East, undertakes to share the
responsibility of co-operating with China to guard her against
internal trouble and foreign invasion and China shall accord to
Japan special facilities in the matter of China's National
Defence, or the protection of Japan's special rights and
privileges and for these objects the following treaty of Alliance
is to be entered into between the two contracting parties:

1. When there is internal trouble in China or when she is at war
with another nation or nations, Japan shall send her army to
render assistance, to assume the responsibility of guarding
Chinese territory and to maintain peace and order in China.

2. China agrees to recognize Japan's privileged position in South
Manchuria and Inner Mongolia and to cede the sovereign rights of
these regions to Japan to enable her to carry out a scheme of
local defence on a permanent basis.

3. After the Japanese occupation of Kiaochow, Japan shall acquire
all the rights and privileges hitherto enjoyed by the Germans in
regard to railways, mines and all other interests, and after peace
and order is restored in Tsingtao, the place shall be handed back
to China to be opened as an International Treaty port.

4. For the maritime defence of China and Japan, China shall lease
strategic harbours along the coast of the Fukien province to Japan
to be converted into naval bases and grant to Japan in the said
province all railway and mining rights.

5. For the reorganization of the Chinese army China shall entrust
the training and drilling of the army to Japan.

6. For the unification of China's firearms and munitions of war,
China shall adopt firearms of Japanese pattern, and at the same
time establish arsenals (with the help of Japan) in different
strategic points.

7. With the object of creating and maintaining a Chinese Navy,
China shall entrust the training of her navy to Japan.

8. With the object of reorganizing her finances and improving the
methods of taxation, China shall entrust the work to Japan, and
the latter shall elect competent financial experts who shall act
as first-class advisers to the Chinese Government.

9. China shall engage Japanese educational experts as educational
advisers and extensively establish schools in different parts of
the country to teach Japanese so as to raise the educational
standard of the country.

10. China shall first consult with and obtain the consent of Japan
before she can enter into an agreement with another Power for
making loans, the leasing of territory, or the cession of the

From the date of the signing of this Defensive Alliance, Japan and
China shall work together hand-in-hand. Japan will assume the
responsibility of safeguarding Chinese territory and maintaining
the peace and order in China. This will relieve China of all
future anxieties and enable her to proceed energetically with her
reforms, and, with a sense of territorial security, she may wait
for her national development and regeneration. Even after the
present European War is over and peace is restored China will
absolutely have nothing to fear in the future of having pressure
brought against her by the foreign powers. It is only thus that
permanent peace can be secured in the Far East.

But before concluding this Defensive Alliance, two points must
first be ascertained and settled. (1) Its bearing on the Chinese
Government. (2) Its bearing on those Powers having intimate
relations with and great interests in China.

In considering its effect on the Chinese Government, Japan must
try to foresee whether the position of China's present ruler Yuan
Shih-kai shall be permanent or not; whether the present
Government's policy will enjoy the confidence of a large section
of the Chinese people; whether Yuan Shi-kai will readily agree to
the Japanese Government's proposal to enter into a treaty of
alliance with us. These are points to which we are bound to give a
thorough consideration. Judging by the attitude hitherto adopted
by Yuan Shi-kai we know he has always resorted to the policy of
expediency in his diplomatic dealings, and although he may now
outwardly show friendliness towards us, he will in fact rely upon
the influence of the different Powers as the easiest check against
us and refuse to accede to our demands. Take for a single
instance, his conduct towards us since the Imperial Government
declared war against Germany and his action will then be clear to
all. Whether we can rely upon the ordinary friendly methods of
diplomacy to gain our object or not it does not require much
wisdom to decide. After the gigantic struggle in Europe is over,
leaving aside America which will not press for advantage, China
will not be able to obtain any loans from the other Powers. With a
depleted treasury, without means to pay the officials and the
army, with local bandits inciting the poverty-stricken populace to
trouble, with the revolutionists waiting for opportunities to
rise, should an insurrection actually occur while no outside
assistance can be rendered to quell it we are certain it will be
impossible for Yuan Shi-kai, single-handed, to restore order and
consolidate the country. The result will be that the nation will
be cut up into many parts beyond all hope of remedy. That this
state of affairs will come is not difficult to foresee. When this
occurs, shall we uphold Yuan's Government and assist him to
suppress the internal insurrection with the certain assurance that
we could influence him to agree to our demands, or shall we help
the revolutionists to achieve a success and realize our object
through them? This question must be definitely decided upon this
very moment so that we may put it into practical execution. If we
do not look into the future fate of China but go blindly to uphold
Yuan's Government, to enter into a Defensive Alliance with China,
hoping thus to secure a complete realization of our object by
assisting him to suppress the revolutionists, it is obviously a
wrong policy. Why? Because the majority of the Chinese people have
lost all faith in the tottering Yuan Shi-kai who is discredited
and attacked by the whole nation for having sold his country. If
Japan gives Yuan the support, his Government, though in a very
precarious state, may possibly avoid destruction. Yuan Shi-kai
belongs to that school of politicians who are fond of employing
craftiness and cunning. He may be friendly to us for a time, but
he will certainly abandon us and again befriend the other Powers
when the European war is at an end. Judging by his past we have no
doubt as to what he will do in the future. For Japan to ignore the
general sentiment of the Chinese people and support Yuan Shi-kai
with the hope that we can settle with him the Chinese Question is
a blunder indeed. Therefore in order to secure the permanent peace
of the Far East, instead of supporting a Chinese Government which
can neither be long continued in power nor assist in the
attainment of our object, we should rather support the 400,000,000
Chinese people to renovate their corrupt Government, to change its
present form, to maintain peace and order in the land and to usher
into China a new era of prosperity so that China and Japan may in
fact as well as in name be brought into the most intimate and
vital relations with each other. China's era of prosperity is
based on the China-Japanese Alliance and this Alliance is the
foundational power for the repelling of the foreign aggression
that is to be directed against the Far East at the conclusion of
the European war. This Alliance is also the foundation-stone of
the peace of the world. Japan therefore should take this as the
last warning and immediately solve this question. Since the
Imperial Japanese Government has considered it imperative to
support the Chinese people, we should induce the Chinese
revolutionists, the Imperialists and other Chinese malcontents to
create trouble all over China. The whole country will be thrown
into disorder and Yuan's Government will consequently be
overthrown. We shall then select a man from amongst the most
influential and most noted of the 400,000,000 of Chinese and help
him to organize a new form of Government and to consolidate the
whole country. In the meantime our army must assist in the
restoration of peace and order in the country, and in the
protection of the lives and properties of the people, so that they
may gladly tender their allegiance to the new Government which
will then naturally confide in and rely upon Japan. It is after
the accomplishment of only these things that we shall without
difficulty gain our object by the conclusion of a Defensive
Alliance with China.

For us to incite the Chinese revolutionists and malcontents to
rise in China we consider the present to be the most opportune
moment. The reason why these men can not now carry on an active
campaign is because they are insufficiently provided with funds.
If the Imperial Government can take advantage of this fact to make
them a loan and instruct them to rise simultaneously, great
commotion and disorder will surely prevail all over China. We can
intervene and easily adjust matters.

The progress of the European War warns Japan with greater urgency
of the imperative necessity of solving this most vital of
questions. The Imperial Government can not be considered as
embarking on a rash project. This opportunity will not repeat
itself for our benefit. We must avail ourselves of this chance and
under no circumstances hesitate. Why should we wait for the
spontaneous uprising of the revolutionists and malcontents? Why
should we not think out and lay down a plan beforehand? When we
examine into the form of Government in China, we must ask whether
the existing Republic is well suited to the national temperament
and well adapted to the thoughts and aspirations of the Chinese
people. From the time the Republic of China was established up to
the present moment, if what it has passed through is to be
compared to what it ought to be in the matter of administration
and unification, we find disappointment everywhere. Even the
revolutionists themselves, the very ones who first advocated the
Republican form of government, acknowledge that they have made a
mistake. The retention of the Republican form of Government in
China will be a great future obstacle in the way of a Chino-
Japanese Alliance. And why must it be so? Because, in a Republic
the fundamental principles of government as well as the social and
moral aims of the people are distinctly different from that of a
Constitutional Monarchy. Their laws and administration also
conflict. If Japan act as a guide to China and China models
herself after Japan, it will only then be possible for the two
nations to solve by mutual effort the Far East Question without
differences and disagreements. Therefore to start from the
foundation for the purpose of reconstructing the Chinese
Government, of establishing a Chino-Japanese Alliance, of
maintaining the permanent peace of the Far East and of realizing
the consummation of Japan's Imperial policy, we must take
advantage of the present opportunity to alter China's Republican
form of Government into a Constitutional Monarchy which shall
necessarily be identical, in all its details, to the
Constitutional Monarchy of Japan, and to no other. This is really
the key and first principle to be firmly held for the actual
reconstruction of the form of Government in China. If China
changes her Republican form of Government to that of a
Constitutional Monarchy, shall we, in the selection of a new
ruler, restore the Emperor Hsuan T'ung to his throne or choose the
most capable man from the Monarchists or select the most worthy
member from among the revolutionists? We think, however, that it
is advisable at present to leave this question to the exigency of
the future when the matter is brought up for decision. But we must
not lose sight of the fact that to actually put into execution
this policy of a Chino-Japanese Alliance and the transformation of
the Republic of China into a Constitutional Monarchy, is, in
reality, the fundamental principle to be adopted for the
reconstruction of China.

We shall now consider the bearing of this Defensive Alliance on
the other Powers. Needless to say, Japan and China will in no way
impair the rights and interests already acquired by the Powers. At
this moment it is of paramount importance for Japan to come to a
special understanding with Russia to define our respective spheres
in Manchuria and Mongolia so that the two countries may co-operate
with each other in the future. This means that Japan after the
acquisition of sovereign rights in South Manchuria and Inner
Mongolia will work together with Russia after her acquisition of
sovereign rights in North Manchuria and Outer Mongolia to maintain
the status quo, and endeavour by every effort to protect the peace
of the Far East. Russia, since the outbreak of the European War,
has not only laid aside all ill-feelings against Japan, but has
adopted the same attitude as her Allies and shown warm friendship
for us. No matter how we regard the Manchurian and Mongolian
Questions in the future she is anxious that we find some way of
settlement. Therefore we need not doubt but that Russia, in her
attitude towards this Chinese Question, will be able to come to an
understanding with us for mutual co-operation.

The British sphere of influence and interest in China is centred
in Tibet and the Yangtsze Valley. Therefore if Japan can come to
some satisfactory arrangement with China in regard to Tibet and
also give certain privileges to Great Britain in the Yangtsze
Valley, with an assurance to protect those privileges, no matter
how powerful Great Britain might be, she will surely not oppose
Japan's policy in regard to this Chinese Question. While this
present European War is going on Great Britain has never asked
Japan to render her assistance. That her strength will certainly
not enable her to oppose us in the future need not be doubted in
the least.

Since Great Britain and Russia will not oppose Japan's policy
towards China, it can readily be seen what attitude France will
adopt in regard to the subject. What Japan must now somewhat
reckon with is America. But America in her attitude towards us
regarding our policy towards China has already declared the
principle of maintaining China's territorial integrity and equal
opportunity and will be satisfied, if we do not impair America's
already acquired rights and privileges. We think America will also
have no cause for complaint. Nevertheless America has in the East
a naval force which can be fairly relied upon, though not
sufficiently strong to be feared. Therefore in Japan's attitude
towards America there is nothing really for us to be afraid of.

Since China's condition is such on the one hand and the Powers'
relation towards China is such on the other hand, Japan should
avail herself in the meantime of the European War to definitely
decide upon a policy towards China, the most important move being
the transformation of the Chinese Government to be followed up by
preparing for the conclusion of the Defensive Alliance. The
precipitate action on the part of our present Cabinet in acceding
to the request of Great Britain to declare war against Germany
without having definitely settled our policy towards China has no
real connection with our future negotiations with China or affect
the political condition in the Far East. Consequently all
intelligent Japanese, of every walk of life throughout the land,
are very deeply concerned about the matter.

Our Imperial Government should now definitely change our dependent
foreign policy which is being directed by others into an
independent foreign policy which shall direct others, proclaiming
the same with solemn sincerity to the world and carrying it out
with determination. If we do so, even the gods and spirits will
give way. These are important points in our policy towards China
and the result depends on how we carry them out. Can our
authorities firmly make up their mind to solve this Chinese
Question by the actual carrying out of this fundamental principle?
If they show irresolution while we have this heaven-conferred
chance and merely depend on the good will of the other Powers, we
shall eventually have greater pressure to be brought against the
Far East after the European War is over, when the present
equilibrium will be destroyed. That day will then be too late for
us to repent of our folly. We are therefore impelled by force of
circumstances to urge our authorities to a quicker sense of the
situation and to come to a determination.

The first point which leaps out of this extraordinarily frank
disquisition is that the origin of the Twenty-one Demands is at
last disclosed. A perusal of the ten articles forming the basis of
the Defensive alliance proposed by the Black Dragon Society,
allows us to understand everything that occurred in Peking in the
spring of 1915. As far back as November, 1914, it was generally
rumoured in Peking that Japan had a surprise of an extraordinary
nature in her diplomatic archives, and that it would be merely a
matter of weeks before it was sprung. Comparing this elaborate
memorandum of the Black Dragon Society with the original text of
the Twenty-one Demands it is plain that the proposed plan, having
been handed to Viscount Kato, had to be passed through the
diplomatic filters again and again until all gritty matter had
been removed, and an appearance of innocuousness given to it. It
is for this reason that the defensive alliance finally emerges as
five compact little "groups" of demands, with the vital things
directly affecting Chinese sovereignty labelled desiderata, so
that Japanese ambassadors abroad could leave very warm assurances
at every Foreign Office that there was nothing in what Japan
desired which in any way conflicted with the Treaty rights of the
Powers in China. The air of mystery which surrounded the whole
business from the 18th January to the 7th May--the day of the
ultimatum--was due to the fact that Japan attempted to translate
the conspiracy into terms of ordinary intercourse, only to find
that in spite of the "filtering" the atmosphere of plotting could
not be shaken off or the political threat adequately hidden. There
is an arresting piece of psychology in this.

The conviction expressed in the first portion of the Memorandum
that bankruptcy was the rock on which the Peking administration
must sooner or later split, and that the moment which Japan must
seize is the outbreak of insurrections, is also highly instructive
in view of what happened later. Still more subtle is the manner in
which the ultimate solution is left open: it is consistently
admitted throughout the mass of reasoning that there is no means
of knowing whether suasion or force will ultimately be necessary.
Force, however, always beckons to Japan because that is the
simplest formula. And since Japan is the self-appointed defender
of the dumb four hundred millions, her influence will be thrown on
the side of the populace in order "to usher into China a new era
of prosperity" so that China and Japan may in fact as well as in
name be brought into the most intimate and vital relations with
each other.

The object of the subsidized insurrections is also clearly stated:
it is to alter China's republican form of government into a
Constitutional Monarchy which shall necessarily be identical in
all its details to the Constitutional Monarchy of Japan and to no
other. Who the new Emperor is to be is a point left in suspense,
although we may here again recall that in 1912 in the midst of the
revolution Japan privately sounded England regarding the
advisability of lending the Manchus armed assistance, a proposal
which was immediately vetoed. But there are other things: nothing
is forgotten in the Memorandum. Russia is to be specially
placated, England to be specially negotiated with, thus
incidentally explaining Japan's recent attitude regarding the
Yangtsze Railways. Japan, released from her dependent foreign
policy, that is from a policy which is bound by conventions and
treaties which others respect, can then carry out her own plans
without fear of molestation.

And this brings us to the two last documents of the dossier--the
method of subsidizing and arranging insurrections in China when
and wherever necessary.

The first document is a detailed agreement between the
Revolutionary Party and various Japanese merchants. Trained
leaders are to be used in the provinces South of the Yellow River,
and the matter of result is so systematized that the agreement
specifies the amount of compensation to be paid for every Japanese
killed on active service; it declares that the Japanese will
deliver arms and ammunition in the districts of Jihchow in
Shantung and Haichow in Kiangsu; and it ends by stating that the
first instalment of cash, Yen 400,000, had been paid over in
accordance with the terms of the agreement. The second document is
an additional loan agreement between the interested parties
creating a special "trading" corporation, perhaps satirically
named "The Europe and Asia Trading Company," which in a
consideration of a loan of half a million yen gives Japanese prior
rights over all the mines of China.


In order to preserve the peace in the Far East, it is necessary
for China and Japan to enter into an offensive and defensive
alliance whereby in case of war with any other nation or nations
Japan shall supply the military force while China shall be
responsible for the finances. It is impossible for the present
Chinese Government to work hand in hand with the Japanese
Government nor does the Japanese Government desire to co-operate
with the former. Consequently Japanese politicians and merchants
who have the peace of the Far East at heart are anxious to assist
China in her reconstruction. For this object the following
Agreement is entered into by the two parties:

1. Before an uprising is started, Terao, Okura, Tseji Karoku and
their associates shall provide the necessary funds, weapons and
military force, but the funds so provided must not exceed
1,500,000 yen and rifles not to exceed 100,000 pieces.

2. Before the uprising takes place the loan shall be temporarily
secured by 10,000,000 yen worth of bonds to be issued by Sun Wen
(Sun Yat Sen). It shall however be secured afterwards by all the
movable properties of the occupied territory. (See Article 14 of
this Agreement.)

3. The funds from the present loan and military force to be
provided are for operations in the provinces South of the Yellow
River viz: Yunnan, Kweichow, Hunan, Hupeh, Szechuan, Kiangsi,
Anhuei, Kiangsu, Chekiang, Fukien, Kwangsi and Kwangtung. If it is
intended to invade the Northern provinces North of the Yellow
River, Tseji Karoku and his associates shall participate with the
revolutionists in all deliberations connected with such

4. The Japanese volunteer force shall be allowed from the date of
their enrolment active service pay in accordance with the
regulations of the Japanese army. After the occupation of a place,
the two parties will settle the mode of rewarding the meritorious
and compensating the family of the killed, adopting the most
generous practice in vogue in China and Japan. In the case of the
killed, compensation for each soldier shall, at the least, be more
than 1,000 yen.

5. Wherever the revolutionary army might be located the Japanese
military officers accompanying these expeditions shall have the
right to advise a continuation or cessation of operations.

6. After the revolutionary army has occupied a region and
strengthened its defences, all industrial undertakings and railway
construction and the like, not mentioned in the Treaties with
other foreign Powers, shall be worked with joint capital together
with the Japanese.

7. On the establishment of a new Government in China, all Japan's
demands on China shall be recognized by the new Government as
settled and binding.

8. All Japanese Military Officers holding the rank of Captain or
higher ranks engaged by the Chinese revolutionary army shall have
the privilege of being continued in their employment with a limit
as to date and shall have the right to ask to be thus employed.

9. The loan shall be paid over in three instalments. The first
instalment will be 400,000 yen, the second instalment ... yen and
the third instalment ... yen. After the first instalment is paid
over, Okura who advances the loan shall have the right to appoint
men to supervise the expenditure of the money.

10. The Japanese shall undertake to deliver all arms and
ammunition in the Districts of Jih Chao and Haichow (in Shantung
and Kiangsu, South of Kiaochow).

11. The payment of the first instalment of the loan shall be made
not later than three days after the signing of this Agreement.

12. All the employed Japanese Military officers and Japanese
volunteers are in duty bound to obey the orders of the Commander
of the revolutionary army.

13. The Commander of the revolutionary army shall have the right
to send back to Japan those Japanese military officers and
Japanese volunteers who disobey his orders and their passage money
shall not be paid if such decision meets with the approval of
three or more of the Japanese who accompany the revolutionary

14. All the commissariat departments in the occupied territory
must employ Japanese experts to co-operate in their management.

15. This Agreement takes effect immediately it is signed by the
two parties.

The foregoing fifteen articles have been discussed several times
between the two parties and signed by them in February. The first
instalment of 400,000 yen has been paid according to the terms of
this Agreement.


1. The Europe and Asia Trading Company undertakes to raise a loan
of 500,000 yen. After the Agreement is signed and sealed by the
contracting parties the Japanese Central Bank shall hand over 3/10
of the loan as the first instalment. When Chang Yao Ching and his
associates arrive at their proper destination the sum of 150,000
yen shall be paid over as the second instalment. When final
arrangements are made the third and last instalment of 200,000 yen
shall be paid.

2. When money is to be paid out, the Europe and Asia Trading
Company shall appoint supervisers. Responsible individuals of the
contracting parties shall jointly affix their seals (to the
checks) before money is drawn for expenditure.

3. The Europe and Asia Trading Company shall secure a volunteer
force of 150 men, only retired officers of the Japanese army to be

4. On leaving Japan the travelling expenses and personal effects
of the volunteers shall be borne by themselves. After reaching
China, Chang Yao Ching and his associates shall give the
volunteers the pay of officers of the subordinate grade according
to the established regulations of the Japanese army.

5. If a volunteer is wounded while on duty Chang Yao Ching and his
associates shall pay him a provisional compensation of not
exceeding 1,000 yen. When wounded seriously a provisional
compensation of 5,000 yen shall be paid as well as a life pension
in accordance with the rules of the Japanese army. If a volunteer
meets with an accident, thus losing his life, an indemnity of
50,000 yen shall be paid to his family.

6. If a volunteer is not qualified for duty Chang Yao-ching and
his associates shall have the power to dismiss him. All volunteers
are subject to the orders of Chang Yao-ching and his associates
and to their command in the battlefields.

7. When volunteers are required to attack a certain selected place
it shall be their duty to do so. But the necessary expenses for
the undertaking shall be determined beforehand by both parties
after investigating into existing conditions.

8. The volunteer force shall be organized after the model of the
Japanese army. Two Japanese officers recommended by the Europe and
Asia Trading Company shall be employed.

9. The Europe and Asia Trading Company shall have the power to
dispose of the public properties in the places occupied by the
volunteer force.

10. The Europe and Asia Trading Company shall have the first
preference for working the mines in places occupied and protected
by the volunteer force.

And here ends this extraordinary collection of papers. Is fiction
mixed with fact--are these only "trial" drafts, or are they real
documents signed, sealed, and delivered? The point seems
unimportant. The thing of importance is the undoubted fact that
assembled and treated in the way we have treated them they present
a complete and arresting picture of the aims and ambitions of the
ordinary Japanese; of their desire to push home the attack to the
last gasp and so to secure the infeodation of China.




A shiver of impotent rage passed over the country when the nature
and acceptance of the Japanese Ultimatum became generally known.
The Chinese, always an emotional people responding with quasi-
feminine volubility to oppressive acts, cried aloud at the
ignominy of the diplomacy which had so cruelly crucified them. One
and all declared that the day of shame which had been so harshly
imposed upon them would never be forgotten and that Japan would
indeed pay bitterly for her policy of extortion.

Two movements were started at once: one to raise a National
Salvation Fund to be applied towards strengthening the nation in
any way the government might decide; the other, to boycott all
Japanese articles of commerce. Both soon attained formidable
proportions. The nation became deeply and fervently interested in
the double-idea; and had Yuan Shih-kai possessed true political
vision there is little doubt that by responding to this national
call he might have ultimately been borne to the highest pinnacles
of his ambitions without effort on his part. His oldest enemies
now openly declared that henceforth he had only to work honourably
and whole-heartedly in the nation's interest to find them
supporting him, and to have every black mark set against his name
wiped out.

In these circumstances what did he do? His actions form one of the
most incredible and, let it be said, contemptible chapters of
contemporary history.

In dealing with the origins of the Twenty-one Demands we have
already discussed the hints the Japan Representative had
officially made when presenting his now famous Memorandum. Briefly
Yuan Shih-kai had been told in so many words that since he was
already autocrat of all the Chinese, he had only to endorse the
principle of Japanese guidance in his administration to find that
his Throne would be as good as publicly and solidly established.
Being saturated with the doleful diplomacy of Korea, and seeing in
these proposals a mere trap, Yuan Shih-kai, as we have shown, had
drawn back in apparent alarm. Nevertheless the words spoken had
sunk in deep, for the simple and excellent reason that ever since
the coup d'etat of the 4th November, 1913, the necessity of
"consolidating" his position by something more permanent than a
display of armed force had been a daily subject of conversation in
the bosom of his family. The problem, as this misguided man saw
it, was simply by means of an unrivalled display of cunning to
profit by the Japanese suggestion, and at the same time to leave
the Japanese in the lurch.

His eldest son, an individual of whom it has been said that he had
absorbed every theory his foreign teachers had taught him without
being capable of applying a single one, was the leader in this
family intrigue. The unhappy victim of a brutal attempt to kill
him during the Revolution, this eldest son had been for years
semi-paralyzed: but brooding over his disaster had only fortified
in him the resolve to succeed his father as legitimate Heir.
Having saturated himself in Napoleonic literature, and being fully
aware of how far a bold leader can go in times of emergency, he
daily preached to his father the necessity of plucking the pear as
soon as it was ripe. The older man, being more skilled and more
cautious in statecraft than this youthful visionary, purposely
rejected the idea so long as its execution seemed to him
premature. But at last the point was reached when he was persuaded
to give the monarchy advocates the free hand they solicited, being
largely helped to this decision by the argument that almost
anything in China could be accomplished under cover of the war,--

In accordance with this decision, very shortly after the 18th
January, the dictator's lieutenants had begun to sound the leaders
of public opinion regarding the feasibility of substituting for
the nominal Republic a Constitutional Monarchy. Thus, in a highly
characteristic way, all through the tortuous course of the
Japanese negotiations, to which he was supposed to be devoting his
sole attention in order to save his menaced fatherland, Yuan Shih-
kai was assisting his henchmen to indoctrinate Peking officialdom
with the idea that the salvation of the State depended more on
restoring on a modified basis the old empire than in beating off
the Japanese assault. It was his belief that if some scholar of
national repute could be found, who would openly champion these
ideas and urge them with such persuasiveness and authority that
they became accepted as a Categorical Imperative, the game would
be as good as won, the Foreign Powers being too deeply committed
abroad to pay much attention to the Far East. The one man who
could have produced that result in the way Yuan Shih-kai desired
to see it, the brilliant reformer Liang Chi-chao, famous ever
since 1898, however, obstinately refused to lend himself to such
work; and, sooner than be involved in any way in the plot, threw
up his post of Minister of Justice and retired to the neighbouring
city of Tientsin from which centre he was destined to play a
notable part.

This hitch occasioned a delay in the public propaganda, though not
for long. Forced to turn to a man of secondary ability, Yuan Shih-
kai now invoked the services of a scholar who had been known to be
his secret agent in the Old Imperial Senate under the Manchus--a
certain Yang Tu--whose constant appeals in that chamber had indeed
been the means of forcing the Manchus to summon Yuan Shih-kai back
to office to their rescue on the outbreak of the Wuchang rebellion
in 1911. After very little discussion everything was arranged. In
the person of this ex-Senator, whose whole appearance was
curiously Machiavellian and decadent, the neo-imperialists at last
found their champion.

Events now moved quickly enough. In the Eastern way, very few
weeks after the Japanese Ultimatum, a society was founded called
the Society for the Preservation of Peace (Chou An Hut) and
hundreds of affiliations opened in the provinces. Money was spent
like water to secure adherents, and when the time was deemed ripe
the now famous pamphlet of Yang Tu was published broadcast, being
in everybody's hands during the idle summer month of August. This
document is so remarkable as an illustration of the working of
that type of Chinese mind which has assimilated some portion of
the facts of the modern world and yet remains thoroughly
reactionary and illogical, that special attention must be directed
to it. Couched in the form of an argument between two individuals
--one the inquirer, the other the expounder--it has something of
the old Testament about it both in its blind faith and in its
insistence on a few simple essentials. It embodies everything
essential to an understanding of the old mentality of China which
has not yet been completely destroyed. From a literary standpoint
it has also much that is valuable because it is so naive; and
although it is concerned with such a distant region of the world
as China its treatment of modern political ideas is so bizarre and
yet so acute that it will repay study.

It was not, however, for some time, that the significance of this
pamphlet was generally understood. It was such an amazing
departure from old precedents for the Peking Government to lend
itself to public propaganda as a revolutionary weapon that the
mind of the people refused to credit the fatal turn things were
taking. But presently when it became known that the "Society for
the Preservation of Peace" was actually housed in the Imperial
City and in daily relations with the President's Palace; and that
furthermore the Procurator-General of Peking, in response to
innumerable memorials of denunciation, having attempted to proceed
against the author and publishers of the pamphlet, as well as
against the Society, had been forced to leave the capital under
threats against his life, the document was accepted at its face-
value. Almost with a gasp of incredulity China at last realized
that Yuan Shih-kai had been seduced to the point of openly
attempting to make himself Emperor. From those August days of 1915
until the 6th June of the succeeding year, when Fate had her own
grim revenge, Peking was given up to one of the most amazing
episodes that has ever been chronicled in the dramatic history of
the capital. It was as if the old city walls, which had looked
down on so much real drama, had determined to lend themselves to
the staging of an unreal comedy. For from first to last the
monarchy movement had something unreal about it, and might have
been the scenario of some vast picture-play. It was acting pure
and simple--acting done in the hope that the people might find it
so admirable that they would acclaim it as real, and call the
Dictator their King. But it is time to turn to the arguments of
Yang Tu and allow a Chinese to picture the state of his country:


Mr. Ko (or 'the stranger'): Since the establishment of the
Republic four years have passed, and upon the President depends
the preservation of order at home and the maintenance of prestige
abroad. I suppose that after improving her internal administration
for ten or twenty years, China will become a rich and prosperous
country, and will be able to stand in the front rank with western

Mr. Hu: No! No! If China does not make any change in the form of
government there is no hope for her becoming strong and rich;
there is even no hope for her having a constitutional government.
I say that China is doomed to perish.

Mr. Ko: Why so?

Mr. Hu: The republican form of government is responsible. The
Chinese people are fond of good names, but they do not care much
about the real welfare of the nation. No plan to save the country
is possible. The formation of the Republic as a result of the
first revolution has prevented that.

Mr. Ko: Why is it that there is no hope of China's becoming

Mr. Hu: The people of a republic are accustomed to listen to the
talk of equality and freedom which must affect the political and
more especially the military administration. In normal
circumstances both the military and student classes are required
to lay great emphasis upon unquestioned obedience and respect for
those who hold high titles. The German and Japanese troops observe
strict discipline and obey the orders of their chiefs. That is why
they are regarded as the best soldiers in the world. France and
America are in a different position. They are rich but not strong.
The sole difference is that Germany and Japan are ruled by
monarchs while France and America are republics. Our conclusion
therefore is that no republic can be strong.

But since the French and American peoples possess general
education, they are in a position to assume responsibility for the
good government of their nations which they keep in good order. On
that account, although these republics are not strong in dealing
with the Powers, they can maintain peace at home. China, however,
is unlike these countries, for her standard of popular education
is very low. Most of the Chinese soldiers declare as a
commonplace; "We eat the imperial food and we must therefore serve
the imperial master." But now the Imperial family is gone, and for
it has been substituted an impersonal republic, of which they know
nothing whatsoever. These soldiers are now law-abiding because
they have awe-inspiring and respectful feelings for the man at the
head of the state. But as the talk of equality and freedom has
gradually influenced them, it has become a more difficult task to
control them. As an example of this corrupt spirit, the commanders
of the Southern troops formerly had to obey their subordinate
officers and the subordinate officers had to obey their soldiers.
Whenever there was an important question to be discussed, the
soldiers demanded a voice and a share in the solution. These
soldiers were called the republican army. Although the Northern
troops have not yet become so degenerate, still they never
hesitate to disobey the order of their superiors whenever they are
ordered to proceed to distant localities. Now we have come to the
point when we are deeply satisfied if the army of the Republic
does not openly mutiny! We cannot expect any more from them save
to hope that they will not mutiny and that they will be able to
suppress internal disturbances. In the circumstances there is no
use talking about resistance of a foreign invasion by these
soldiers. As China, a republic, is situated between two countries,
Japan and Russia, both of which have monarchical governments, how
can we resist their aggression once diplomatic conversations
begin? From this it is quite evident that there is nothing which
can save China from destruction. Therefore I say there is no hope
of China becoming strong.

Mr. Ko: But why is it that there is no hope of China ever becoming

Mr. Hu: People may not believe that while France and America are
rich China must remain poor. Nevertheless, the reason why France
and America are rich is that they were allowed to work out their
own salvation without foreign intervention for many years, and
that at the same time they were free from internal disturbances.
If any nation wishes to become rich, it must depend upon
industries for its wealth. Now, what industries most fear is
disorder and civil war. During the last two years order has been
restored and many things have returned their former State, but our
industrial condition is the same as under the Manchu Dynasty.
Merchants who lost their capital during the troublous times and
who are now poor have no way of retrieving their losses, while
those who are rich are unwilling to invest their money in
industrial undertakings, fearing that another civil war may break
out at any moment, since they take the recent abortive second
revolution as their warning. In future, we shall have disquietude
every few years; that is whenever the president is changed. Then
our industrial and commercial condition will be in a still worse
condition. If our industries are not developed, how can we expect
to be strong? Take Mexico as a warning. There is very little
difference between that country and China, which certainly cannot
be compared with France and America. Therefore I say there is no
hope for China ever becoming rich.

Mr. Ko: Why is it that you say there is no hope for China having a
Constitutional Government?

Mr. Hu: A true republic must be conducted by many people
possessing general education, political experience and a certain
political morality. Its president is invested with power by the
people to manage the general affairs of the state. Should the
people desire to elect Mr. A their president today and Mr. B
tomorrow, it does not make much difference; for the policy of the
country may be changed together with the change of the president
without there being any danger of disorder of chaos following such
change. We have a very different problem to solve in China. The
majority of our people do not know what the republic is, nor do
they know anything about a Constitution nor have they any true
sense of equality and freedom. Having overthrown the Empire and
established in its place a republic they believe that from now on
they are subservient to no one, and they think they can do as they
please. Ambitious men hold that any person may be president and if
they cannot get the presidency by fair means of election they are
prepared to fight for it with the assistance of troops and
robbers. The second revolution is an illustration of this point.
From the moment that the Emperor was deposed, the centralization
of power in the government was destroyed; and no matter who may be
at the head of the country, he cannot restore peace except by the
re-establishment of the monarchy. So at the time when the republic
was formed, those who had previously advocated Constitutional
Government turned into monarchists. Although we have a Provisional
Constitution now and we have all kinds of legislative organs,
which give to the country an appearance of a constitutional
government, China has a constitutional government in name only and
is a monarchy in spirit. Had the government refrained from
exercising monarchical power during the last four years, the
people could not have enjoyed one day of peace. In short, China's
republic must be governed by a monarchy through a constitutional
government. If the constitutional government cannot govern the
republic, the latter cannot remain. The question of constitutional
government is therefore very important, but it will take ten or
twenty years before it can be solved.

Look at the people of China today! They know that something
terrible is going to come sooner or later. They dare not think of
the future. The corrupt official lines his pocket with unrighteous
money, preparing to flee to foreign countries or at least to the
Foreign Settlements for safety. The cautious work quietly and do
not desire to earn merit but merely try to avoid giving offence.
The scholars and politicians are grandiloquent and discourse upon
their subjects in a sublime vein, but they are no better than the
corrupt officials. As for our President, he can remain at the head
of the State for a few years. At most he may hold office for
several terms,--or perhaps for his whole life. Then questions must
arise as to who shall succeed him; how to elect his successor; how
many rivals will there be; whether their policies will be
different from his, etc., etc. He personally has no idea regarding
the solution of these questions. Even if the president is a
sagacious and capable man, he will not be able to make a policy
for the country or fix a Constitution which will last for a
hundred years. Because of this he is driven merely to adopt a
policy so as to maintain peace in his own country and to keep the
nation intact so long as he may live. In the circumstances such a
president can be considered the best executive head we can have.
Those who are worshippers of the constitutional government cannot
do more than he does. Here we find the reason for the silence of
the former advocates of a constitutional administration. They have
realized that by the formation of the republic the fundamental
problem of the country has been left unsolved. In this wise it
happens that the situation is something like this. Whilst the
country is governed by an able president, the people enjoy peace
and prosperity. But once an incapable man assumes the presidency,
chaos will become the order of the day, a state of affairs which
will finally lead to the overthrow of the president himself and
the destruction of the country. In such circumstances, how can you
devise a general policy for the country which will last for a
hundred years? I say that there is no hope for China establishing
a truly constitutional government.

Mr. Ko: In your opinion there is no hope for China becoming strong
and rich or for her acquiring a constitutional government. She has
no choice save ultimately to disappear. And yet is there no plan
possible whereby she may be saved?

Mr. Hu: If China wishes to save herself from ultimate
disappearance from the face of the earth, first of all she must
get rid of the republic. Should she desire wealth and strength,
she must adopt a constitutional government. Should she want
constitutional government she must first establish a monarchy.

Mr. Ko: How is it that should China desire wealth and strength she
must first adopt the constitutional form of government?

Mr. Hu: Wealth and strength is the object of the country, and a
constitutional government is the means to realizing this object.
In the past able rulers could accomplish their purpose without a
constitutional government. We refer to Emperor Wu of the Han
Dynasty and Emperor Tai Chung of the Tang Dynasty. However, when
these able rulers died their system of administration died with
them. This contention can be supported by numerous historical
instances; but suffice to say that in China as well as in Europe,
the lack of a constitutional government has been the cause of the
weakness of most of the nations in ancient times. Japan was never
known as a strong nation until she adopted a constitutional
government. The reason is this: when there is no constitutional
government, the country cannot continue to carry out a definite

Within comparatively recent times there was born in Europe the
constitutional form of government. European nations adopted it,
and they became strong. The most dangerous fate that can confront
a nation is that after the death of an able ruler the system of
administration he has established disappears with him; but this
the constitutional form of government is able to avert. Take for
instance William I of Germany who is dead but whose country
continues to this day strong and prosperous. It is because of
constitutional government. The same is true of Japan, which has
adopted constitutional government and which is becoming stronger
and stronger every day. The change of her executive cannot affect
her progress in respect of her strength. From this it is quite
clear that constitutional government is a useful instrument for
building up a country. It is a government with a set of fixed laws
which guard the actions of both the people and the president none
of whom can overstep the boundary as specified in the laws. No
ruler, whether be he a good man or a bad man, can change one iota
of the laws. The people reap the benefit of this in consequence.
It is easy to make a country strong and rich but it is difficult
to establish a constitutional government. When a constitutional
government has been established, everything will take care of
itself, prosperity following naturally enough. The adoption of a
constitutional government at the present moment can be compared to
the problem of a derailed train. It is hard to put the train back
on the track, but once on the track it is very easy to move the
train. What we should worry about is not how to make the country
rich and prosperous, but how to form a genuine constitutional
government. Therefore I say that if China desires to be strong and
prosperous, she should first of all adopt the constitutional form
of government.

Mr. Ko: I do not understand why it is that a monarchy should be
established before the constitutional form of government can be

Mr. Hu: Because if the present system continues there will be
intermittent trouble. At every change of the president there will
be riot and civil war. In order to avert the possibility of such
aweful times place the president in a position which is permanent.
It follows that the best thing is to make him Emperor. When that
bone of contention is removed, the people will settle down to
business and feel peace in their hearts, and devote their whole
energy and time to the pursuit of their vocations. It is logical
to assume that after the adoption of the monarchy they will
concentrate their attention on securing a constitutional
government which they know is the only salvation for their
country. As for the Emperor, knowing that he derives his position
from the change from a republic, and filled with the desire of
pacifying the people, he cannot help sanctioning the formation of
the constitutional form of government, which in addition, will
insure to his offspring the continuation of the Throne. Should he
adopt any other course, he will be exposed to great personal
danger. If he is broadminded, he will further recognize the fact
that if no constitutional form of government is introduced, his
policy will perish after his death. Therefore I say that before
the adoption of the constitutional form of government, a monarchy
should be established. William I of Germany and the Emperor Meiji
of Japan both tried the constitutional form of government and
found it a success.

Mr. Ko: Please summarize your discussion.

Mr. Hu: In short, the country cannot be saved except through the
establishment of a constitutional form of government. No
constitutional government can be formed except through the
establishment of a monarchy. The constitutional form of government
has a set of fixed laws, and the monarchy has a definite head who
cannot be changed, in which matters lies the source of national
strength and wealth.

Mr. Ko: What you have said in regard to the adoption of the
constitutional monarchy as a means of saving the country from
dismemberment is quite true, but I would like to have your opinion
on the relative advantages and disadvantages of a republic and a
monarchy, assuming that China adopts the scheme of a monarchy.

Mr. Hu: I am only too glad to give you my humble opinion on this
momentous question.

Mr. Ko: You have said that China would be devastated by contending
armies of rival leaders trying to capture the presidency. At what
precise moment will that occur?

Mr. Hu: The four hundred million people of China now rely upon the
President alone for the protection of their lives and property.
Upon him likewise falls the burden of preserving both peace and
the balance of power in the Far East. There is no time in the
history of China that the Head of the State has had to assume such
a heavy responsibility for the protection of life and property and
for the preservation of peace in Asia; and at no time in our
history has the country been in greater danger than at the present
moment. China can enjoy peace so long as His Excellency Yuan Shih-
kai remains the President, and no longer. Should anything befall
the President, every business activity will at once be suspended,
shops will be closed, disquietude will prevail, people will become
panic-stricken, the troops uncontrollable, and foreign warship
will enter our harbours. European and American newspapers will be
full of special dispatches about the complicated events in China,
and martial law will be declared in every part of the country. All
this will be due to the uncertainty regarding the succession to
the presidency.

It will be seen from the first section of this long and
extraordinary pamphlet how the author develops his argument. One
of his major premises is the inherent unruliness of Republican
soldiery,--the armies of republics not to be compared with the
armed forces of monarchies,--and consequently constituting a
perpetual menace to good government. Passing on from this, he lays
down the proposition that China cannot hope to become rich so long
as the fear of civil war is ever-present; and that without a
proper universal education a republic is an impossibility. The
exercise of monarchical power in such circumstances can only be
called an inevitable development,--the one goal to be aimed at
being the substitution of Constitutional Government for the
dictatorial rule. The author deals at great length with the
background to this idea, playing on popular fears to reinforce his
casuistry. For although constitutional government is insisted upon
as the sole solution, he speedily shows that this
constitutionalism will depend more on the benevolence of the
dictator than on the action of the people. And should his advice
be not heeded, when Fortune wills that Yuan Shih-kai's rule shall
end, chaos will ensue owing to the "uncertainty" regarding the

Here the discussion reaches its climax--for the demand that
salvation be sought by enthroning Yuan Shih-kai now becomes clear
and unmistakable. Let the author speak for himself.

Mr. Ko: But it is provided in the Constitutional Compact that a
president must be selected from among the three candidates whose
names are now kept in a golden box locked in a stone room. Do you
think this provision is not sufficient to avert the terrible times
which you have just described?

Mr. Hu: The provision you have mentioned is useless. Can you find
any person who is able to be at the head of the state besides His
Excellency Yuan Shih-kai? The man who can succeed President Yuan
must enjoy the implicit confidence of the people and must have
extended his influence all over the country and be known both at
home and abroad. He must be able to maintain order, and then no
matter what the constitution provides, he will be unanimously
elected President. He must also be able to assure himself that the
two other candidates for the presidency have no hope for success
in the presidential campaign. The provision in the constitution,
as well as the golden casket in which the names of the three
candidates are kept which you have mentioned, are nothing but
nominal measures. Moreover there is no man in China who answers
the description of a suitable successor which I have just given.
Here arises a difficult problem; and what has been specified in
the Constitutional Compact is a vain attempt to solve it. It is
pertinent to ask why the law-makers should not have made the law
in such a way that the people could exercise their free choice in
the matter of the presidential successor? The answer is that there
is reason to fear that a bad man may be elected president by
manipulations carried out with a masterly hand, thereby
jeopardizing the national welfare. This fear has influenced the
constitution-makers to settle upon three candidates from among
whom the president must be elected. Then it may be asked why not
fix upon one man instead of upon three since you have already
deprived the people of part of their freedom? The answer is that:
there is not a single man whose qualifications are high enough to
be the successor. As it is, three candidates of equal
qualifications are put forward for the people to their selection.
No matter how one may argue this important question from the legal
point of view, there is the fact that the law makers fixed upon
three candidates for the presidency, believing that we do not
possess a suitable presidential successor. The vital question of
the day setting aside all paper talk, is whether or not China has
a suitable man to succeed President Yuan Shih-kai. Whether or not
the constitutional compact can be actually carried out in future I
do not know; but I do know that that instrument will eventually
become ineffective.

Mr. Ko: I desire a true picture of the chaos which you have hinted
will ensue in this country. Can you tell me anything along that

Mr. Hu: In a time of confusion, the soldiers play the most
important part, virtuous and experienced and learned statesmen
being unable to cope with the situation. The only qualification
which a leader at such a time needs to possess is the control of
the military, and the ability to suppress Parliament. Should such
a person be made the president, he cannot long hold his enviable
post in view of the fact that he cannot possess sufficient
influence to control the troops of the whole country. The generals
of equal rank and standing will not obey each other, while the
soldiers and politicians, seeing a chance in these differences for
their advancement, will stir up their feelings and incite one
another to fight. They will fight hard among themselves. The
rebels, who are now exiles in foreign lands, taking advantage of
the chaos in China, will return in very little time to perpetrate
the worst crimes known in human history. The royalists who are in
retirement will likewise come out to fish in muddy waters. Persons
who have the qualifications of leaders will be used as tools to
fight for the self-aggrandizement of those who use them. I do not
wish to mention names, but I can safely predict that more than ten
different parties will arise at the psychological moment. Men who
will never be satisfied until they become president, and those who
know they cannot get the presidency but who are unwilling to serve
others, will come out one after another. Confusion and disturbance
will follow with great rapidity. Then foreign countries which have
entertained wild ambitions, availing themselves of the distressful
situation in China, will stir up ill-feelings among these parties
and so increase the disturbances. When the proper time comes,
various countries, unwilling to let a single country enjoy the
privilege of controlling China, will resort to armed intervention.
In consequence the eastern problem will end in a rupture of the
international peace. Whether China will be turned at that time
into a battleground for the Chinese people or for the foreign
Powers I cannot tell you. It is too dreadful to think of the
future which is enshrouded in a veil of mystery. However, I can
tell you that the result of this awful turmoil will be either the
slicing of China like a melon or the suppression of internal
trouble with foreign assistance which will lead to dismemberment.
As to the second result some explanation is necessary. After
foreign countries have helped us to suppress internal
disturbances, they will select a man of the type of Li Wang of
Korea, who betrayed his country to Japan, and make him Emperor of
China. Whether this man will be the deposed emperor or a member of
the Imperial family or the leader of the rebel party, remains to
be seen. In any event he will be a figurehead in whose hand will
not be vested political, financial and military power, which will
be controlled by foreigners. All the valuable mines, various kinds
of industries and our abundant natural resources will likewise be
developed by others. China will thus disappear as a nation.

In selecting a man of the Li Wang type, the aforesaid foreign
countries will desire merely to facilitate the acquisition of
China's territory. But there can be easily found such a man who
bears remarkable resemblance to Li Wang, and who will be willing
to make a treaty with the foreigners whereby he unpatriotically
sells his country in exchange for a throne which he can never
obtain or keep without outside assistance. His procedure will be
something like this: He will make an alliance with a foreign
nation by which the latter will be given the power to carry on
foreign relations on behalf of his country. In the eyes of
foreigners, China will have been destroyed, but the people will
continue deceived and made to believe that their country is still
in existence. This is the first step. The second step will be to
imitate the example of Korea and make a treaty with a certain
power, whereby China is annexed and the throne abolished. The
imperial figure-head then flees to the foreign country where he
enjoys an empty title. Should you then try to make him devise
means for regaining the lost territory it will be too late. For
China will have been entirely destroyed by that time. This is the
second procedure in the annexation of Chinese territory. The
reason why that foreign country desires to change the republic
into the monarchy is to set one man on the throne and make him
witness the whole process of annexation of his country, thereby
simplifying the matter. When that time has come, the people will
not be permitted to make any comment upon the form of government
suitable for China, or upon the destruction of their country. The
rebels who raised the standard of the republic have no principles
and if they now find that some other tactics will help to increase
their power they will adopt these tactics. China's republic is
doomed, no matter what happens. If we do not change it ourselves,
others will do it for us. Should we undertake the change ourselves
we can save the nation: otherwise there is no hope for China to
remain a nation. It is to be regretted that our people now assume
an attitude of indifference, being reluctant to look forward to
the future, and caring not what may happen to them and their
country. They are doomed to become slaves after the loss of their
national independence.

Mr. Ko: I am very much frightened by what you have said. You have
stated that the adoption of a constitutional monarchy can avert
such terrible consequences; but is there not likely to be
disturbance during the change of the republic to monarchy, since
such disturbance must always accompany the presidential election?

Mr. Hu: No comparison can be formed between these two things.
There may be tumult during the change of the form of government,
but it will be better in comparison with the chaos that will some
day ensue in the republic. There is no executive head in the
country when a republic endeavours to select a presidential
successor. At such a time, the ambitious try to improve their
future, while the patriotic are at a loss now to do anything which
will assist in the maintenance of order. Those who are rebellious
rise in revolt while those who are peace-loving are compelled by
circumstances to join their rank and file. Should the form of
government be transformed into a monarchical one, and should the
time for change of the head of the state come, the successor
having already been provided for, that will be well-known to the
people. Those who are patriotic will exert their utmost to
preserve peace, and as result the heir-apparent can peacefully
step on the throne. There are persons who will contend for the
office of the President, but not for the throne. Those who contend
for the office of President do not commit any crime, but those who
try to seize the throne are rebels. Who dares to contend for the

At the time of the change of the president in a republic,
ambitious persons arise with the intention of capturing this most
honourable office, but not so when the emperor is changed. Should
there be a body of persons hostile to the heir-apparent, that body
must be very small. Therefore I say that the enemies of a
succeeding Emperor are a few, whilst there are many in the case of
a presidential successor. This is the first difference.

Those who oppose the monarchy are republican enthusiasts or
persons who desire to make use of the name of the republic for
their own benefit. These persons will raise trouble even without
the change of the government. They do not mind disturbing the
peace of the country at the present time when the republic exists.
It is almost certain that at the first unfurling of the imperial
flags they will at once grasp such an opportune moment and try to
satisfy their ambition. Should they rise in revolt at the time
when the Emperor is changed the Government, supported by the loyal
statesmen and officials, whose interests are bound up with the
welfare of the imperial family and whose influence has spread far
and wide, will be able to deal easily with any situation which may
develop. Therefore I declare that the successor to the throne has
more supporters while the presidential successor has few. This is
the second difference between the republic and the constitutional

Why certain persons will contend for the office of the President
can be explained by the fact that there is not a single man in the
country whose qualifications are above all the others. Succession
to the throne is a question of blood-relation with the reigning
Emperor, and not a question of qualifications. The high officials
whose qualifications are unusually good are not subservient to
others but they are obedient to the succeeding Emperor, because of
their gratitude for what the imperial family has done for them,
and because their well-being is closely associated with that of
the imperial household. I can cite an historical incident to
support my contention. Under the Manchu Dynasty, at one time
General Chu Chung-tang was entrusted with the task of suppressing
the Mohammedan rebellion. He appointed General Liu Sung San
generalissimo. Upon the death of General Liu, Chu Chung-tang
appointed his subordinate officers to lead the army, but the
subordinate officers competed for power. Chu Chung-tang finally
made the step-son of General Liu the Commander-in-Chief and the
officers and soldiers all obeyed his order as they did his
father's. But it may be mentioned that this young man was not more
able than any of his father's subordinate commanders. Nevertheless
prestige counted. He owed his success to his natural
qualification, being a step-son to General Liu. So is the case
with the emperor whose successor nobody dares openly to defy--to
say nothing of actually disputing his right to the throne. This is
the third difference between the republic and the monarchy.

I will not discuss the question: as to whether there being no
righteous and able heir-apparent to succeed his Emperor-father,
great danger may not confront the nation. However, in order to
provide against any such case, I advocate that the formation of a
constitutional government should go hand in hand with the
establishment of the monarchy. At first it is difficult to
establish and carry out a constitutional government, but once it
is formed it will be comparatively easy. When the constitutional
government has been established, the Emperor will have to seek his
fame in such useful things as the defence of his country and the
conquest of his enemy. Everything has to progress, and men
possessing European education will be made use of by the reigning
family. The first Emperor will certainly do all he can to capture
the hearts of the people by means of adopting and carrying out in
letter as well as in spirit constitutional government. The heir-
apparent will pay attention to all new reforms and new things.
Should he do so, the people will be able to console themselves by
saying that they will always be the people of a constitutional
monarchy even after the succession to the throne of the heir-
apparent. When the time comes for the heir-apparent to mount the
throne the people will extend to him their cordial welcome, and
there will be no need to worry about internal disturbances.

Therefore, I conclude that the successor to the presidential chair
has to prevent chaos by wielding the monarchical power, while the
new emperor can avert internal disquietude forever by means of his
constitutional government. This is the fourth difference between
the republic and the monarchy. These four differences are
accountable for the fact that there will not be as much
disturbance at the time of the change of emperors as at the time
when the president is changed.

Mr. Ko: I can understand what you have said with regard to the
advantages and disadvantages of the republic and the monarchy, but
there are many problems connected with the formation of a
constitutional monarchy which we have to solve. Why is it that the
attempt to introduce constitutional government during the last
years of the Manchu Dynasty proved a failure?

Mr. Hu: The constitutional government of the Manchu Dynasty was
one in name only, and as such the forerunner of the revolution of
1911. Towards the end of the Manchu Dynasty, the talk of starting
a revolution to overthrow the imperial regime was in everybody's
mouth, although the constitutional party endeavoured to accomplish
something really useful. At that time His Excellency Yuan Shih-kai
was the grand chancellor, and realizing the fact that nothing
except the adoption of a constitutional government could save the
throne of the Manchus, he assumed the leadership of the
constitutional party, which surpassed in strength the
revolutionary party as a result of his active support. The
people's hearts completely turned to the constitutional party for
salvation, while the revolutionary party lost that popular support
which it had formerly enjoyed. Then it seemed that the imperial
household would soon adopt the constitutional monarchy and the
threatening revolution could be averted. Unfortunately, the
elaborate plans of His Excellency Yuan Shih-kai regarding the
adoption of the constitutional government were not carried out by
the imperial household. A great change took place: His Excellency
retired to his native province; and after losing this powerful
leader the constitutional party was pitilessly shattered. A
monarchist party suddenly made its appearance on the political
arena to assist the imperial family, which pretended to do its
very best for the development of a constitutional government, but
secretly exerted itself to the utmost for the possession and
retention of the real power. This double-dealing resulted in
bringing about the revolution of 1911. For instance, when the
people cried for the convening of a parliament, the imperial
family said "No." The people also failed to secure the abolition
of certain official organs for the imperialists. They lost
confidence in the Reigning House, and simultaneously the
revolutionary party raised its banner and gathered its supporters
from every part of the country. As soon as the revolt started at
Wuchang the troops all over the country joined in the movement to
overthrow the Manchu Dynasty. The members of the Imperial Senate,
most of whom were members of the constitutional party, could not
help showing their sympathy with the revolutionists. At last the
imperial household issued a proclamation containing Nineteen
Articles--a veritable magna carta--but it was too late. The
constitutional government which was about to be formed was thus
laid aside. What the imperial family did was the mere organization
of an advisory council. A famous foreign scholar aptly remarked:
"A false constitutional government will eventually result in a
true revolution." In trying to deceive the people by means of a
false constitutional government the imperial house encompassed its
own destruction. Once His Excellency Yuan Shih-kai stated in a
memorial to the throne that there were only two alternatives: to
give the people a constitutional government or to have them
revolt. What happened afterwards is a matter of common knowledge.
Therefore I say that the government which the imperial family
attempted to form was not a constitutional government.

Mr. Ko: Thank you for your discussion of the attempt of the
imperial household to establish a constitutional government; but
how about the Provisional Constitution, the parliament and the
cabinet in the first and second years of the Republic? The
parliament was then so powerful that the government was absolutely
at its mercy, thereby disturbing the peaceful condition of the
country. The people have tasted much of the bitterness of
constitutional government. Should you mention the name of
constitutional government again they would be thoroughly
frightened. Is that true?

Mr. Hu: During the first and second years of the Republic, in my
many conversations with the members of the Kuo Ming Tang, I said
that the republic could not form an efficient method of control,
and that there would be an over centration of power through the
adoption of monarchical methods of ruling, knowing as well as I
did the standards of our people. When the members of the Kuo Ming
Tang came to draw up the Provisional Constitution they purposely
took precisely the opposite course of action and ignored my
suggestion. It may, however, be mentioned that the Provisional
Constitution made in Nanking was not so bad, but after the
government was removed to Peking, the Kuo Ming Tang people tied
the hand and foot of the government by means of the Cabinet System
and other restrictions with the intention of weakening the power
of the central administration in order that they might be able to
start another revolution. From the dissolution of the Nanking
government to the time of the second revolution they had this one
object in view, namely to weaken the power of the central
administration so that they could contend for the office of the
president by raising further internal troubles in China. Those
members of the Kuo Ming Tang who made the constitution know as
well as I that China's republic must be governed through a
monarchical administration; and therefore the unreasonable
restrictions in the Provisional Constitution were purposely

Mr. Ko: What is the difference between the constitutional
government which you have proposed and the constitutional
government which the Manchu Dynasty intended to adopt?

Mr. Hu: The difference lies in the proper method of procedure and
in honesty of purpose, which are imperative if constitutional
government expects to be successful.

Mr. Ko: What do you mean by the proper method of procedure?

Mr. Hu: The Provisional Constitution made in Nanking, which was
considered good, is not suitable for insertion in the future
constitution, should a constitutional monarchy be established. In
making a constitution for the future constitutional monarchy we
have to consult the constitutions of the monarchies of the world.
They can be divided into three classes which are represented by
England, Prussia and Japan. England is advanced in its
constitutional government, which has been in existence for
thousands of years, (sic) and is the best of all in the world. The
English king enjoys his empty title and the real power of the
country is exercised by the parliament, which makes all the laws
for the nation. As to Prussia, the constitutional monarchy was
established when the people started a revolution. The ruler of
Prussia was compelled to convene a parliament and submitted to
that legal body a constitution. Prussia's constitution was made by
its ruler together with the parliament. Its constitutional
government is not so good as the English. As to the Japanese
constitutional monarchy, the Emperor made a constitution and then
convened a parliament. The constitutional power of the Japanese
people is still less than that of the Prussian people. According
to the standard of our people we cannot adopt the English
constitution as our model, for it is too advanced. The best thing
for us to do is to adopt part of the Prussian and part of the
Japanese in our constitution-making. As our people are better
educated now than ever before, it is decidedly unwise entirely to
adopt the Japanese method, that is, for the Emperor to make a
constitution without the approval of the parliament and then to
convoke a legislative body. In the circumstances China should
adopt the Prussian method as described above with some
modifications, which will be very suitable to our conditions. As
to the contents of the constitution we can copy such articles as
those providing the right for the issue of urgent orders and
appropriation of special funds, etc. from the Japanese
Constitution, so that the power of the ruler can be increased
without showing the slightest contempt for the legislative organ.
I consider that this is the proper method of procedure for the
formation of a constitutional monarchy for China.

Mr. Ko: Can I know something about the contents of our future
constitution in advance?

Mr. Hu: If you want to know them in detail I recommend you to read
the Constitutions of Prussia and Japan. But I can tell you this
much. Needless to say that such stipulations as articles
guaranteeing the rights of the people and the power of the
parliament will surely be worked into the future constitution.
These are found in almost every constitution in the world. But as
the former Provisional Constitution has so provided that the power
of the parliament is unlimited, while that of the president is
very small the Chief Executive, besides conferring decorations and
giving Orders of Merit, having almost nothing to do without the
approval of the Senate, it is certain that nothing will be taken
from that instrument for the future constitution. Nor will the
makers of the future constitution take anything from the nineteen
capitulations offered by the Manchu Government, which gave too
much power to the legislative organ. According to the Nineteen
Articles the Advisory Council was to draw up the constitution,
which was to be ratified by the parliament; the Premier being
elected by the parliament; whilst the use of the army and navy
required the parliament's sanction; the making of treaties with
foreign countries have likewise to be approved by the parliament,
etc., etc. Such strict stipulations which are not even known in
such an advanced country in matters constitutional as England were
extorted from the imperial family by the advisory council.
Therefore it is most unlikely that the makers of the future
constitution will take any article from the nineteen capitulations
of "confidence." They will use the Constitutions of Japan and
Prussia as joint model and will always have in their mind the
actual conditions of this country and the standard of the people.
In short, they will copy some of the articles in the Japanese
constitution, and adopt the Prussian method of procedure for the
making of the constitution.

Mr. Ko: What do you mean by honesty?

Mr. Hu: It is a bad policy to deceive the people. Individually the
people are simple, but they cannot be deceived collectively. The
Manchu Government committed an irretrievable mistake by promising
the people a constitutional government but never carrying out
their promise. This attitude on the part of the then reigning
house brought about the first revolution. As the standard of our
people at the present time is not very high, they will be
satisfied with less power if it is properly given to them. Should
any one attempt to deceive them his cause will finally be lost. I
do not know how much power the people and the parliament will get
in the constitutional monarchy, but I would like to point out here
that it is better to give them less power than to deceive them. If
they are given less power, and if they want more, they will
contend for it. Should the government deem it advisable to give
them a little more, well and good. Should they be unfit for the
possession of greater power, the government can issue a
proclamation giving the reasons for not complying with their
request, and they will not raise trouble knowing the true
intention of the government. However, honesty is the most
important element in the creation of a constitutional monarchy. It
is easy and simple to practise it. The parliament must have the
power to decide the laws and fix the budgets. Should its decision
be too idealistic or contrary to the real welfare of the country,
the Government can explain its faults and request it to reconsider
its decision. Should the parliament return the same decision, the
Government can dissolve it and convoke another parliament. In so
doing the Government respects the parliament instead of despising
it. But what the parliament has decided should be carried out
strictly by the Government, and thus we will have a real
constitutional Government. It is easy to talk but difficult to
act, but China like all other countries has to go through the
experimental stage and face all kinds of difficulties before a
genuine constitutional government can be evolved. The beginning is
difficult but once the difficulty is over everything will go on
smoothly. I emphasize that it is better to give the people less
power at the beginning than to deceive them. Be honest with them
is my policy.

Mr. Ko: I thank you very much for what you have said. Your
discussion is interesting and I can understand it well. The proper
method of procedure and honesty of purpose which you have
mentioned will tend to wipe out all former corruption.

Mr. Ko, or the stranger, then departed.

On this note the pamphleteer abruptly ends. Having discussed ad
nauseam the inadequacy of all existing arrangements, even those
made by Yuan Shih-kai himself, to secure a peaceful succession to
the presidency; and having again insisted upon the evil part
soldiery cannot fail to play, he introduces a new peril, the
certainty that the foreign Powers will set up a puppet Emperor
unless China solves this problem herself, the case of Korea being
invoked as an example of the fate of divided nations. Fear of
Japan and the precedent of Korea, being familiar phenomena, are
given a capital in all this debate, being secondary only to the
crucial business of ensuring the peaceful succession to the
supreme office. The transparent manner in which the history of the
first three years of the Republic is handled in order to drive
home these arguments will be very apparent. A fit crown is put on
the whole business by the final suggestion that the Constitutional
Government of China under the new empire must be a mixture of the
Prussian and Japanese systems, Yang Tu's last words being that it
is best to be honest with the people! No more damning indictment
of Yuan Shih-kai's regime could possibly have been penned.




Although this extraordinary pamphlet was soon accepted by Chinese
society as a semi-official warning of what was coming, it alone
was not sufficient to launch a movement which to be successful
required the benign endorsement of foreign opinion. The Chinese
pamphleteer had dealt with the emotional side of the case: it was
necessary to reinforce his arguments with an appeal which would be
understood by Western statesmen as well as by Eastern politicians.
Yuan Shih-kai, still pretending to stand aside, had kept his
attention concentrated on this very essential matter; for, as we
have repeatedly pointed out, he never failed to understand the
superlative value of foreign support in all his enterprises,--that
support being given an exaggerated value by the public thanks to
China's reliance on foreign money. Accordingly, as if still
unconvinced, he now very naively requested the opinion of his
chief legal adviser, Dr. Goodnow, an American who had been
appointed to his office through the instrumentality of the Board
of the Carnegie Institute as a most competent authority on
Administrative Law.

Even in this most serious matter the element of comedy was not
lacking. Dr. Goodnow had by special arrangement returned to Peking
at the psychological moment; for having kicked his heels during
many weary months in the capital, he had been permitted in 1914 to
take up the appointment of President of an American University on
condition that he would be available for legal "advice" whenever
wanted. The Summer vacation gave him the opportunity of revisiting
in the capacity of a transient the scenes of his former idleness;
and the holiday-task set him by his large-hearted patron was to
prove in as few folios as possible that China ought to be a
Monarchy and not a Republic--a theme on which every schoolboy
could no doubt write with fluency. Consequently Dr. Goodnow,
arming himself with a limited amount of paper and ink, produced in
very few days the Memorandum which follows,--a document which it
is difficult to speak of dispassionately since it seems to have
been deliberately designed to play into the hands of a man who was
now openly set on betraying the trust the nation reposed in him,
and who was ready to wade through rivers of blood to satisfy his
insensate ambition.

Nothing precisely similar to this Goodnow Memorandum has ever been
seen before in the history of Asia: it was the ultramodern spirit
impressed into the service of mediaeval minds. In any other
capital of the world the publication of such a subversive
document, following the Yang Tu pamphlet, would have led to riot
and tumult. In China, the home of pacifism, the politicians and
people bowed their heads and bided their time. Even foreign
circles in China were somewhat nonplussed by the insouciance
displayed by the peripatetic legal authority; and the Memorandum
was for many days spoken of as an unnecessary indiscretion.
[Footnote: It is perhaps of importance to note that Dr. Goodnow
carried out all his studies in Germany.] Fastening at once on the
point to which Yang Tu had ascribed such importance--the question
of succession--Dr. Goodnow in his arguments certainly shows a
detachment from received principles which has an old-world flavour
about it, and which has damned him forever in the eyes of the
rising generation in China. The version which follows is the
translation of the Chinese translation, the original English
Memorandum having been either mislaid or destroyed; and it is best
that this argument should be carefully digested before we add our


A country must have a certain form of government, and usually the
particular form of government of a particular country is not the
result of the choice of the people of that country. There is not
any possibility even for the most intellectual to exercise any
mental influence over the question. Whether it be a monarchy or
republic, it cannot be the creation of human power except when it
is suitable to the historical, habitual, social and financial
conditions of that country. If an unsuitable form of government is
decided upon, it may remain for a short while, but eventually a
system better suited will take its place.

In short, the form of government of a country is usually the
natural and only result of its circumstances. The reasons for such
an outcome are many, but the principal one is Force. If we study
the monarchical countries we will find that usually a dynasty is
created by a person who is capable of controlling the force of the
entire country and overthrowing other persons opposed to him,
working towards his goal with an undaunted spirit. If this man is
capable of ruling the nation and if he is a rare genius of the
day, and the conditions of the country are suited for a
monarchical government, he as a rule creates a new dynasty and his
descendants inherit the same from generation to generation.

If this is so, then the solution of a difficult position of a
country is to be found in a monarchy rather than a republic. For
on the death of a monarch no doubt exists as to who shall succeed
him, and there is no need of an election or other procedure.
Englishmen say, "The King is dead, Long live the King." This
expresses the point. But in order to attain this point it is
necessary that the law of succession be definitely defined and
publicly approved; otherwise there will not be lacking, on the
death of the monarch, men aspiring to the throne; and as no one is
qualified to settle the dispute for power, internal disturbance
will be the result.

Historically speaking no law of succession is so permanently
satisfactory as that used by the nations of Europe. According to
this system the right of succession belongs to the eldest son of
the monarch, or failing him, the nearest and eldest male relative.
The right of succession, however, may be voluntarily surrendered
by the rightful successor if he so desires; thus if the eldest son
declines to succeed to the throne the second son takes his place.
This is the rule of Europe.

If instead of this law of a succession a system is adopted by
which the successor is chosen by the monarch from among his sons
or relatives without any provision being made for the rights of
the eldest son, disturbance will be the inevitable result. There
will not be a few who would like to take possession of the throne
and they will certainly plot in the very confines of the palace,
resulting in an increase of the sufferings of an aged monarch;
and, even if the disaster of civil war be avoided, much dispute
will arise owing to the uncertainty of the successor--a dangerous
situation indeed.

Such is the lesson we learn from history. The conclusion is,
speaking from the viewpoint of the problem of transmission of
power, that the superiority of the monarchical system over the
republican system is seen in the law of succession,--that is the
eldest son of the ruler should succeed to the throne.

Leaving out the nations of ancient times, the majority of
countries in Europe and Asia have adopted the monarchical system.
There are, however, exceptions such as Wen-ni-shih (Venice) and
Switzerland, which adopted the republican form of government; but
they are in the minority while most of the great nations of the
world have adopted the monarchical form of government.

During the recent century and a half the attitude of Europe has
undergone a sudden change and the general tendency is to discredit
monarchism and adopt republicanism. The one great European power
which first attempted to make a trial of republicanism is Great
Britain. In the Seventeenth Century a revolution broke out in
England and King Charles I was condemned to death by Parliament
and executed as a traitor to the nation. A republic was
established and the administration was called republican with
Cromwell as regent, i.e. President, Cromwell was able to control
the power of government because at the head of the revolutionary
army he defeated the King. This English republic however, only
existed for a few years and was finally defeated in turn. The
reason was that the problem of succession after the death of
Cromwell was difficult to solve. Cromwell had a desire to place
his son in his place as regent after his death, but as the English
people were then unsuited for a republic and his son had not the
ability to act as chief executive, the republic of England
suddenly disappeared. The British people then abandoned the
republican system and readopted the monarchical system. Thus
Charles II, the son of Charles I, was made King not only with the
support of the army but also with the general consent of the

The second European race which attempted to have a republic was
the American. In the Eighteenth Century the United States of
America was established in consequence of the success of a
revolution. But the American revolution was not at first intended
to overthrow the monarchy. What it sought to do was to throw off
the yoke of the monarchy and become independent. The revolution,
however, succeeded and the circumstances were such that there was
no other alternative but to have a republic: for there was no
royal or Imperial descendant to shoulder the responsibilities of
the state. Another factor was the influence of the advocates of
republicanism who came to America in the previous century from
England and saturated the minds of the Americans with the ideas of
republicanism. The minds of the American people were so imbued
with the ideas of republicanism that a republican form of
government was the ideal of the entire race. Had General
Washington--the leader of the revolutionary army--had the desire
to become a monarch himself he would probably have been
successful. But Washington's one aim was to respect republicanism
and he had no aspiration to become King. Besides he had no son
capable of succeeding him on the throne. Consequently on the day
independence was won, the republican form of government was
adopted without hesitation, and it has survived over a hundred

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